O Presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso foi eleito porque derrubou a inflação e só será reeleito se ela permanecer baixa. Se for com crescimento, melhor ainda.
Essa constatação é importante para subsidiar as empresas nas decisões quanto ao futuro.
A estratégia montada por FHC e a equipe econômica para derrubar a inflação, mantê-la baixa, eleger-se e, quem sabe, se tudo desse certo, reeleger-se, foi lançar uma âncora cambial que segurasse a economia com inflação baixa até a realização das chamadas reformas estruturais. Essa estratégia foi um sucesso absoluto até a crise cambial do México. A partir daí, foi lançada a âncora monetária, baseada no aumento brutal da taxa de juros e na contenção da demanda, com forte aperto de crédito.
Hoje, o governo está amarrado a uma política econômica que provoca, só com pagamento de juros, o aumento da dívida interna em valor equivalente, a cada quatro meses, a uma Vale do Rio Doce. Com isso, a dívida interna equiparou-se, em setembro, à externa (ambas na casa dos US$ 100 bilhões).
O mais grave é que está emperrado o encaminhamento das reformas estruturais que permitiram o lançamento da âncora fiscal, terceira e definitiva (baseada no equilíbrio estrutural do orçamento). A reforma tributária, a reforma administrativa, a reforma da previdência e a privatização estão andando a passos de tartaruga.
Diante deste quadro, não é possível ter clareza ainda sobre quais serão os próximos lances no caminho da estabilização. Uma coisa parece certa, todavia: enquanto não desatar o nó das reformas emperradas, o governo não terá outros recursos para lançar mão que não a âncora monetária, ainda que mitigada com juros menos “escorchantes” e crédito menos sufocado.
A esse respeito, vale a pena atentar para a previsão feita por Eugênio Staub, presidente da Gradiente, ainda em julho/95.
Para as empresas, mais do que nunca, é preciso atenção redobrada na manutenção do mercado e no funcionamento interno enxuto (severo controle de custos e do endividamento, sobretudo o de curto prazo). Talvez as condições macroeconômicas não mudem tão cedo, de forma substancial.
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